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    Sunday, October 12, 2003

    Disease Detection: Four people on Staten Island have taken ill, setting off the CDC's disease detector:

    Four people are critically ill on Staten Island, suffering from a mysterious infectious disease.
    New York City health officials issued a medical alert Friday night to doctors and hospitals in the five boroughs and triggered the national alert system through the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Though it was not clear whether the cases are the result of the same disease or are related in any way, the Health Department asked that all clinicians be vigilant.


    The symptoms are:

    *Initially, a flu-like illness with headache, fever, fatigue and muscle aches.

    *Mental changes, including confusion, memory loss and delirium.
    Convulsive seizures, in some cases.

    *Difficulty breathing, leading in some cases to complete respiratory failure.

    *Red, raised patches on the skin that are symmetrical, that is, a rash on one side of the body mirroring one on the other side.

    *Elevated white blood cell count.

    *High protein levels in the cerebrospinal fluid.


    As the article notes, the symptoms are consistent with some sort of viral infection. It could be a mosquito-borne illness (Staten Island is a swampy place) or it might not. Viral encephalitis cases tend to peak in the late summer or early fall, so a cluster of viral encephalitis cases at this time of year isn't that unusual. And only four cases doesn't make it a public health emergency.

    Which brings up the question - how many cases should the threshold make? Too low a threshold means too many false alarms, but too high a threshold would mean missing dangerous public health threats (be they sponsored by nature or terrorism) at the early stage when it's easiest to nip them in the bud. Better to be on guard than to be caught sleeping, as long as the media don't seize on every alert and magnify it beyond all reason.
     

    posted by Sydney on 10/12/2003 11:16:00 AM 0 comments

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