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    Saturday, December 06, 2003

    Supply and Demand: The CDC's admonition that everyone get a flu vaccine has been heeded too well - the manufacturer's have run out:

    The nation's two vaccine makers, Aventis Pasteur and Chiron, said they had shipped out all the vaccine they had made, a total of about 80 million doses. That is in sharp contrast to last year, when 10 million doses were left over and thrown away, said Dr. Michael Decker, vice president for scientific and medical affairs of Aventis Pasteur. Because flu strains vary from year to year, a new vaccine must be formulated each year.

    There's still vaccine out there - in doctor's offices and in health departments, but once they deplete their supplies there will none left. (I ran out two weeks ago and wasn't able to find anymore, which left me scratching my head everytime I read a report in the paper quoting a CDC official as saying "there's plenty of influenza vaccine this year.")

    The problem is that it's very difficult to match supply to demand. Last year, the manufacturers had to throw out 10 million doses, that's at least $50 million dollars in loss, perhaps more. (I'm guessing that the manufacturer's cost is about $5 a dose, since it's $8 a dose from the distributors.) Like any good business, the vaccine manufacturer wants to keep excess to a minimum. There's just been more demand this year because of the reports of widespread flu in Colorado, and the deaths of young children. The death rate so far this year is the same as it usually is, but the young children have caught people's attention, and more healthy people are seeking flu vaccine for themselves and their children.

    Vaccines are one instance (at least vaccines that really make a difference in public health) in which it might not be a bad idea to avoid the free market.

    UPDATE: The CDC is on the case:

    The CDC and medical groups have started surveying doctors and health departments to determine if -- and where -- vaccine shortages might be occurring. If there were a serious outbreak of flu in some areas of the country, while other areas had unused vaccine, the CDC would help to redistribute remaining stocks, the Times reported.
     

    posted by Sydney on 12/06/2003 09:16:00 AM 0 comments

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