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Tuesday, March 23, 2004"Surreal'' is a term seldom applied to debates among accountants over statistical projections, but it is becoming increasingly appropriate to Washington's magical Medicare movie. Think for a moment about those Republicans who say they relied on the lower cost estimate in supporting Medicare's expansion. Estimating costs for any entitlement program is difficult because consumer demand for something with no cost to the consumer will prove to be infinitely elastic. Entitlements for medical care are even more uncertain, thanks to the constant and unforeseeable introduction of costly innovations, including new drugs. That's why actuaries have never reliably predicted Medicare costs. Steven Hayward, an analyst with the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, notes that in 1966 congressional accountants estimated the total program would cost $12 billion in 1990, allowing for inflation. Then reality intervened. In 1990 Medicare cost $107 billion. Oops, indeed. "The $400 billion price tag is almost certainly a complete fiction,'' said a news story in Congressional Quarterly last fall. Analysts from the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and other research groups sympathetic to Republicans said the same. Any member of Congress or senator claiming ignorance of this history should be dismissed for negligence or stupidity." Yep. They aren't so much upset by the actual estimated cost as they are by the fact that the actual estimated cost has been made public. posted by Sydney on 3/23/2004 08:19:00 AM 0 comments 0 Comments: |
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