"When many cures are offered for a disease, it means the disease is not curable" -Anton Chekhov
''Once you tell people there's a cure for something, the more likely they are to pressure doctors to prescribe it.'' -Robert Ehrlich, drug advertising executive.
"Opinions are like sphincters, everyone has one." - Chris Rangel
More on those Avian Flu Numbers: Michael Fumento says I told you so on the mortality rate of avian flu, and ABC's numbers guy, John Allen Paulos also thinks the mortality rates are likely exaggerated. I would be reassured if it weren't for the high mortality rates within families, or if the sickest and the dead were all old and in poor health rather than young children who play with chickens. posted by Sydney on
1/11/2006 08:56:00 AM
1 comments
1 Comments:
Even if we knew the denominator, the equation would still be meaningless. In areas where a strain of avian flu is endemic, many people will first become immune through their mother's antibodies, and stay immune through repeated exposure to the virus. Outbreaks will naturally be mild and limited, but not because the virus is friendly.
What we need to know are the antibody levels in the population surrounding the outbreaks. If the levels are low, then the virus is mild and less dangerous. If the levels are high, then the virus could well be highly lethal in a pandemic.