medpundit |
||
|
Tuesday, February 21, 2006Through mathematical modeling, researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston and Seattle's University of Washington show flu outbreaks are likely to emerge in multiple locations and containment of all outbreaks is improbable. Their research and thinking are available (for free!) here: We argue here that if a single introduction of a pandemic-capable strain is expected, multiple introductions should also be expected. Each containment effort would likely be more difficult than the last as manpower, antiviral stockpiles, and other scarce resources become depleted. Even if each successive containment effort is no more difficult than its predecessor, the chance of at least one failure increases with the number of introductions. At best, a containment policy will only postpone the emergence of a pandemic, "buying time" to prepare for its effects. Containment certainly hasn't worked in birds, but people are a little easier to quarantine, aren't they? posted by Sydney on 2/21/2006 08:08:00 AM 2 comments 2 Comments:
This post is well-placed next to the one above it. Could it be that epidemiologists are tempted to provide the doomsday scenario for the benefit of the microphones? By Big Lebowski Store, at 5:24 AM
Check out my health news site--yes, I am Health's Ass, someone has to be. By Star Lawrence, at 11:55 AM |
|